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Thoughts on Alvarez vs. Mosley

by Sam Geraci
On the undercard of the most meaningful fight of the year, rising and undefeated
superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez defends his 154lb WBC title against future hall of
famer “Sugar” Shane Mosley. 

While the star of the night is clearly Floyd Mayweather, it could be argued that the
goal of the night is to use the event’s popularity to market Alvarez into a
contender for real fights with big names and even bigger money.

In his short career, Alvarez has walked through his competition and developed good
balance and thudding punches that wear down his opponents. Alvarez’s rise to the WBC
title at just twenty-one years of age, albeit aided by the politics of Jose Sulaiman
of the WBC, has been impressive (especially considering his limited amateur
experience of only twenty fights).

Having said that, because of the brilliant matchmaking and marketing of Golden Boy
Promotions, Alvarez has not yet faced a true 154lb fighter. In fact, it could be
argued that aside from current 135lb IBF champion Miguel Vasquez, who Alvarez
defeated twice early in his career, Alvarez has not yet faced a top ten fighter of
any weight class. 

Mosley, on the other hand, has faced and competed with top fighters from 135lbs,
147lbs, and 154lbs. In those three weight classes, Mosley is considered an all time
great at 135lbs (32-0, 30ko), one of the best of his generation at 147lbs (10-5,
6ko), and courageous or overmatched at 154lbs (4-2-1, 3ko).

While I do expect Mosley to look better than he did against Mayweather, Mora, and
Pacquiao because of Alvarez’s plodding style with limited head movement, I can’t
imagine Mosley hurting a strong 154lb fighter in his prime enough to win a decision
or get a knockout. I do, however, expect Mosley’s superior hand speed, coordination,
and overall toughness to provide the test for Alvarez that Kermit Cintron was unable
to provide in Alvarez’s last fight. 

Simply put, after analyzing the careers and recent performances of both fighters, it
seems as though Golden Boy and the odds makers got it right: Alvarez is a young
(21), strong 154lb fighter on the rise and Mosley is an old (40), dynamic
135lb-147lb fighter who is moving up to chase recognition, money, and titles. 

After taking some good shots, I expect Alvarez to win by decision in similar fashion
as Ronald “Winky” Wright did against Mosley in their second fight.  

There is always a chance, however, especially in the case of a great fighter like
Mosley, that the odds makers, promoters, and all of the critics overvalued the
prospect and undervalued what’s left in the aging fighter (see Francisco Bojado vs.
Jesse James Leija).
2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Scott

    May 7, 2012 at 5:52 pm

    Solid analysis, do you think Sugar Shane is going to keep fighting?? I guess he went through a divorce, needs the money. All too common in boxing I guess…

  2. jodywpadmin

    May 10, 2012 at 5:31 pm

    I don’t think there is any chance of him retiring. Like you said, he got the divorce and needs the money. He still has a little name recognition, so as long as he can get paid i think he will continue

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