By Ian S Palmer
WBO Light Heavyweight Champion Sergey Kovalev will be defending his title against Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas this Saturday, November 2nd. The 12-round bout can be seen live in North America on DAZN while fans in the UK can catch it on Sky Sports Action. Kovalev last fought in August when he stopped Anthony Yarde in the 11th round. Alvarez was last in action in May when he beat Daniel Jacobs by a close unanimous decision. Kovalev reclaimed his belt in February when be beat Eleider Alvarez by unanimous decision in a rematch after Alvarez stopped him in the seventh round six months earlier with Kovalev ahead on all three judges’ scorecards.
Kovalev is also a former WBA and IBF champ who regained the vacant WBO title by stopping Vyacheslav Sharbranskyy in the second round in November, 2017 and then stopped Igor Mikhalkin in the seventh round in March, 2018. The champ is now 36 years old and has lost three of his last seven bouts. He lost his titles to Andre Ward by a highly-controversial unanimous decision by scores of 114-113 across the board in November, 2016. He then lost by premature stoppage in the eighth round of their rematch seven months later.
Kovalev still has an impressive impressive mark of 34-3-1 though along with 29 Kos to his name and has fought 173 rounds since turning pro in 2009. His draw came against Grover Young via a technical two-round decision in 2011 when Young couldn’t continue after an accidental foul. There’s no doubt the Russian’s career is on the downswing though and he’s been stopped in two of his three defeats. He possesses a 72.5-inch reach and stands 6-feet tall.
In the past, Kovalev was basically regarded as a KO artist with a 76.3 per cent knockout ratio and has enough power in his fists to drop opponents with both body and head shots. However, he’s a good offensive boxer who used to have a pretty good defence and a solid chin. He didn’t press the action like he usually does when he fought Ward though and showed his opponent too much respect which was a big mistake. Kovalev likes to establish his snapping jab and usually punches in flurries rather than depending on one big shot.
He’s beaten the likes of Yarde, Alvarez, Isaac Chilemba, Jean Pascal (twice), Bernard Hopkins, Blake Caparello, Gabriel Campillo, Darnell Boone and Nathan Cleverly. Kovalev’s a good boxer/puncher, but can get frustrated in the ring by an elite boxer, which is what happened to some extent when he faced Ward. He’s also been distracted in the past by his questionable out-of-the-ring antics and they could come back to haunt him here.
Alvarez lifted Gennady Golovkin’s WBC and WBA ‘Super’ World Middleweight Titles in September, 2018 but took quite a bit of punishment in doing so. His first fight against Triple G, which ended in a highly-controversial draw was no walk in the park either. Alvarez is 29 years old and owns an excellent record of 52-1-2 along with 35 Kos. His only loss was a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather in September of 2013 while his other draw was a four-round affair against Jorge Juarez back in 2006. Alvarez stands 5-feet-9-inches tall and has a reach of 70.5 inches which puts him three inches shorter than Kovalev with a two-inch reach disadvantage.
Alvarez has a wealth of experience for his age since he turned pro when he was just 15 years old in 2005 and has 391 rounds under his belt since then. He’s taken on and beaten some tough opponents over the years such as Jacobs, Golovkin, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, James Kirkland, Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, Josesito Lopez, Kermit Cintron, Carlos Baldomir, and Alfredo Angulo. He’s held world titles in the jr. middleweight, middleweight and super middleweight divisions as well as minor belts as a welterweight. This will be his first foray in the light heavyweight division.
Alvarez has above-average power and enters the fight with a current knockout ratio of 63.6 per cent with a granite chin and quick hands but has gone the distance in four of his last five fights. Also, Golovkin, Mayweather and Khan to some degree showed Canelo can be outboxed as he has difficulty handling a quick, stiff jab. Even so, Alvarez is a good boxer-puncher who likes to go to the body but has a bit of difficulty with boxers who are mobile.
Prediction…
There’s no doubt Alvarez has chosen to fight the weakest link when it comes to light heavyweight champions as Kovalev is in the twilight of his career at the age of 36 and can’t take a punch like he used to. The Kovalev who fought Ward would be more than a handful for Alvarez as he had the speed and power to keep Alvarez off of him as well as a pretty solid chin, but those days appear to be gone.
Still, Kovalev is an underrated boxer and he needs to get off to a fast start and be aggressive and not hold back on his punches. He needs to hit and hurt Alvarez early and often to test his chin at 175 lbs and make him think twice about attacking. That being said, I’m expecting Alvarez to pull this out with a good chance of stopping Kovalev.
